As the high-stakes battle for Bihar inches closer, the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is expected to finalise its seat-sharing formula in the next few weeks as major allies are involved in negotiations.
According to senior NDA sources, the alliance is likely to settle on the same formula as it was done during the Lok Sabha polls but with a slight tweak. During the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, out of total 40 seats, BJP contested on 17, JD (U) on 16 and Lok Janshakti Party (Ramvilas) on five seats. Jitan Ram Manjhi’s led Hindustani Avami Morcha (HAM) and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) contested on one seat each.
As Lok Sabha polls were about electing the prime minister, BJP got one seat more than the JD(U), to get it a slight advantage of perception.
However, as the assembly polls are about electing the chief minister and Nitish Kumar continues to be the face of these elections, the JD(U) is expected to get one more seat than the BJP. Sources indicated that the JD(U) may contest 102 seats, while the BJP 101 seats. The remaining 40 odd seats will be divided among LJP (RV), HAM), and RLM.
As Chirag Paswan’s party had 100 percent strike rate in Lok Sabha polls, winning all five seats, it may ask for nearly 30 seats, however, it may be given around 22-25 seats, while HAM and RLM are likely to get the remaining. Paswan has said he will move to state politics by contesting an assembly seats which can cause tensions within the alliance partners particularly JDU and HAM. During the 2020 polls, Paswan had campaigned against Nitish Kumar which caused damage to the JDU. However, this time, being part of the NDA alliance, Paswan argues in favour of Nitish Kumar as CM face, but his entry to state politics may change equations within the state.
Sources said the NDA has carried out surveys on all the seats to check the caste equations so the candidate selection will be done accordingly. The final seat sharing formula is likely to be announced by July/August, while the candidate selection will follow soon to allow contestants to rally support ahead of polls.
While, the NDA alliance appears to have broadly decided on the seat sharing formula, its opponents – the grand alliance — were yet to formalise it. RJD is expected to aim for around 140 seats arguing it was the main force in the state, while Congress lacks winnability. The Congress had contested 70 seats in 2020. The VIP party is also asking for more seats.
The talks are being held between the partners on both sides in the state before they move to Delhi for final announcement.
