NEW DELHI, Jul 22: Indian cities are becoming increasingly more vulnerable to floods, heatwaves, and other climate-related risks and will require over 2.4 trillion US dollars in investments by 2050 to build resilient and low-carbon infrastructure, according to a World Bank report released on Tuesday.
The report notes that Indian cities hold tremendous potential as centres of economic growth, with 70 per cent of new jobs coming from cities by 2030.
“However, timely action is needed for cities to deal with impacts from extreme weather events and avert billions of dollars in future losses,” the report ‘Towards Resilient and Prosperous Cities in India’ states.
The report, prepared in partnership with the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs, stated that “Annual economic losses from rain-related flooding are currently estimated at 4 billion dollars. These are projected to rise to five billion dollars by 2030 and between 14 and 30 billion dollars by 2070 if no remedial action is taken.”
According to the report, much of the urban expansion is occurring in “flood-prone and heat-vulnerable areas.”
The report identifies Delhi, Chennai, Surat and Lucknow among cities most exposed to urban heat island effects and flood risks, particularly due to settlement expansion into vulnerable areas.
“In Delhi, the report highlights risks linked to rising temperatures and urban flooding. Heat stress is also expected to intensify. Between 1983 and 2016, exposure to dangerous heat levels increased by 71 percent in India’s 10 largest cities, rising from 4.3 billion to 10.1 billion person-hours per year,” the report added.
The report raised concerns about heat-related deaths.
“If emissions continue at current levels, annual heat-related deaths may rise from 1,44,000 to more than 3,28,000 by 2050. Around 20 percent of working hours in major Indian cities could be lost due to high heat stress conditions,” it says.
Heat mitigation alone could increase India’s Gross Domestic Product by up to 0.4 per cent and save up to 130,000 lives annually by 2050, the report states.
According to the report, the country’s urban projected population will be around 1.1 billion by 2070. “More than 144 million new urban homes will be required, doubling the current housing stock,” the report states.
To offset these risks, the World Bank estimates that India will need to invest 2.4 trillion dollars by 2050 and 10.9 trillion dollars by 2070 across sectors such as housing, public transport, solid waste management, and municipal services.
“However, India currently spent around 10.6 billion dollars per year from 2011 to 2018. India’s current spending on urban infrastructure and services is -0.70 per cent of GDP, which is much lower than other countries and must be substantially increased”, the report states.
“This is both a challenge and an opportunity,” said Auguste Tano Kouame, World Bank Country Director for India.
Without timely action, climate risks such as flooding and extreme heat will become much more severe, Kouame added.
The report states that public financing alone will not be sufficient to meet this demand.
It calls for increased private sector investment through tools such as green bonds, blended finance, and access to international climate funds. The report recommends strengthening the financial autonomy of urban local bodies and improving their capacity to plan and implement bankable projects.
“India’s urban population stood at 480 million in 2020 and is projected to reach 951 million by 2050 and over 1.1 billion by 2070.
According to the report, an estimated investment of 150 billion dollars over 15 years could enable 60 per cent of existing Indian cities to implement flood mitigation measures.
The report was supported by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, a multi-donor trust fund that helps countries strengthen disaster and climate resilience. (PTI)
